A632.1.4.RB_StevensEric

                                                                 A632.1.4.RB_StevensEric

The text discusses the way that researchers solve multistage problems through the application of formulas that provide the most significant chance of success. Critically think about your own decision-making process and reflect on the process you use compared to the process outlined in the article.

 Would this improve your decision-making?

When I read the multistage process and how we expect immediate results but often look at the long term progress of our decision making I began to understand some of the flaws in my decision making as I do in some day to day activities. By looking at the potential success of the correct decisions in each individual decision that I make can lead to success in the long run if I begin to look at the future of each of these decisions and how it would impact the overall goal of what I am trying to achieve. If I slow down my decision making and look at the entire problem and win the short goals the odds of me achieving the desired results are good.

 What would the impact be on forward planning?

The impact of predicting possible outcomes for potential issues that may or even may not arise would allow me to be better prepared for the possibility of an unexpected variable arising. With this forward thinking it may allow me to make the better decision and be quicker at tackling the next step of the decision making process. I understand that not all variables will remain the same or they can be predicted but if I am prepared for 60% of the possible changes in my decision making this will allow me to be better at looking at the bigger picture.

 How would you apply optimal dynamic decision analysis to predict future impact of today's decision?

The probability of success in the decisions that I make today can be compared to past experiences that I may have run across. However the optimal dynamic decision analysis of the future stemming from today’s decision can directly are attributed to making the right decisions in each variable that arises. This will allow the decision to be the correct decision and predict possible negative variables that would arise. By planning ahead and thinking of every possible outcome good or bad will increase your chances of success. I would say plan for the worst case scenario and have an immediate back up to remedy the problem with plan B. I believe there should always be a back up to any plan that you and this applies to the decisions that you make.